premier league

Manchester United vs. West Bromwich Albion (Nov. 21)

Manchester United vs. West Brom Odds

Manchester United Odds -315 [BET NOW]
West Brom Odds +900 [BET NOW]
Draw +440 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+123) [BET NOW]
Time 3 p.m. ET
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Clubs going in seemingly very different directions go at it Saturday when Manchester United hosts West Bromwich Albion at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils, who captured a 3-1 win over Everton in their final match before the international break, haven’t had much to cheer about during their Premier League campaign thus far. They sit in 14th place on the league table, saddled with a 3-1-3 record and just 10 points.

On the other side, things could not be going much worse for the Baggies. West Brom is winless through its first eight league fixtures, which has firmly placed them in a relegation battle with the likes of Fulham, Burnley and Sheffield United.

The Baggies are 0-3-5 on the season, good enough for just three points and a firm grip on 18th place in the league standings.

With that said, let’s take a look at this contest and what could be in store.

Manchester United

Bright rays of positive light have been few and far between for the Red Devils in league play thus far.

Sure, Manchester United has gotten off to a fabulous start in the Champions League, securing wins over Paris Saint-Germain and RB Leipzig to grab the top spot in Group H of the competition.

However, that success hasn’t transferred to pitches across England’s top flight on a consistent basis, which is why the club is struggling to climb up the table. Maybe the win at Everton does the trick, but at this point it’s extremely hard to gauge which Manchester United team is going to show up on a weekly basis.

Statistically, the Red Devils have accumulated some pretty subpar numbers thus far, currently sitting on 8.5 expected goals and 10.2 expected goals against in league play. Those numbers generate a -1.7 xGDiff and -0.24 xGDiff/90 minutes, putting them in the bottom half of the 20-team table.

Needless to say, those statistics might get it done against the likes of West Brom, but they won’t make a dent at the top of the standings.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


West Brom

The Baggies have had absolutely nothing go their way up to this point.

Still without a victory, West Brom must get things together starting this weekend at Old Trafford if it’s going to claw its way out of the relegation zone before it’s too late.

The Baggies have scored just four goals this season, getting shut out in four of their last five league tilts during an 0-2-3 stretch prior to the break. The draws came against Brighton (16th place) and Burley (19th place), solidifying the fact those results were nothing to write home about.

When comparing statistical data, Manchester United crushes West Brom in every category despite being relatively poor itself. That should give you an idea as to how bad things have been for the central London outfit.

The Baggies have compiled a dismal 4.7 XGs and even more brutal 13.9 expected goals, which are the league’s worst numbers in the both categories. Needless to say, West Brom’s dismal -9.2 xGDiff and -1.15 for xGDiff/90 minutes are also at the bottom of the standings as well.


Betting Analysis

This match has a Manchester United rout written all over it. However, this is the same club that lost its opener — a 3-1 stunner against Crystal Palace — at Old Trafford and has thrown in clunkers against Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal along the way.

Now, maybe that win against Everton prior to the break was a sign of positive things to come, but I’m not getting giddy over the Red Devils just yet.

Instead, I am buying the half goal and backing the total to stay under three goals on the alternative number. Recent history supports this angle, with six of the last seven meetings between these clubs at Old Trafford staying under three goals across all competitions.

Throw in the fact the total has stayed under three goals in West Brom’s last five league games and I like my chances.

I will also sprinkle a little on both teams to not score in the match. Offensively, the Baggies define stagnant, with another shutout likely on the horizon.

Picks: Total Under 3 Goals (-134) | Both Teams To Score — No (-134)

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