Baseball

Jo Adell – 2021 Fantasy Baseball and 2021 Projections

There will be many people screaming that Jo Adell is no longer a rookie, and to those people I say, “Stop screaming, I think you’re right,” but by my own admission in my Sixto Sanchez fantasy, I explained I was going by old rookie eligibility rules, because the new ones for just this season were confusing as all get-out. For our purposes, Jo Adell had 130 or less at-bats, so welcome to the resistance (to actual rookie eligibility). And, if porpoises are reading, I want to go on record as saying I never enjoyed Sea World. They’re popcorn was always stale. Never the hoo! Jo Adell, or as I like to call him, last year’s Randy Arozarena. Can y’all remember back to last year when we were like Jo Adell or Mike Trout, which do you prefer? And half of us were like, “Hee-haw! I want Jo Adell!” That aged like a fine cheddar that is stored between your toes. Adell’s season was not, how do I say, good. He went 9/3/7/.161 in 124 ABs. Glad he got those growing pains out of the way, huh? This reminds me of what a wise man named Grey Albright once said, “These prospects, huh?” Ah, no truer words have been said. It is pretty funny how we think we know what we’re getting, yet no one knows anything. Funny, funny stuff. So, what can we expect from Jo Adell in 2021 fantasy baseball?

Digging into Jo Adell’s stats, and. Dot dot dot. Why did we like him again? Seriously, trying to figure it out here. Did he go from one of the best prospects to a guy who won’t be drafted in shallower 12-team mixed leagues in less than 130 at-bats, or is it me? Hint:  It’s not me. He’s got a contact problem. In 2019 in Triple-A, he had a 32.6% strikeout rate and last year in the small sample in the majors it jumped to 41.7%. Forty-one point-seven is not good, boys and five girls. You’re gonna hit .161 there, nearly every single time. He had a little over a month’s worth of stats, so it’s silly to pull anything from that, or his 19.9% swinging strike rate, which is kinda hilarious. If you look at his 2019 strikeout numbers in the minors, and his lower levels, the Ks remain. He’s gonna hit .220 in the majors, huh? How did I not realize this previously? I think I was so enamored with the power (70 grade) that I just ignored the hit tool (35 grade). He also has 60 grade speed, and the easiest comp for me is the guy right in front of him on the Angels’ depth chart:  Justin Upton. But because Adell sucks on average, I might say he’s more of a BJ. Pun noted and intended.

Best case scenario for Adell at his peak (not 2021, but in general) is 35/15/.250. Oh, that’s damn good, don’t get me wrong, but that’s not 2021, as my previous parenthetical pointed out pretty clearly. For 2021, well, his ceiling is decent still. Big power and solid speed is alluring. If he strikes out like he was last year, he’s going to spend a year bouncing between the lineup, the bench and the minors, assuming there’s minors next year. Yes, they’re doing away with anyone under the age of 18. Hey, some of you will have less mouths to feed! I don’t see how those contact problems are magically fixed, but he is only 21 years old. This could be a slow process that takes a few years. Even if it takes four years, he’ll still be young enough to make good on his potential 35/15/.250 by age 25, which I think the Angels would take, but for 2021? Feels like a flyer at best in the last rounds of mixed leagues. For 2021, I’ll give Jo Adell projections of 41/16/48/.228/4 in 378 ABs with a chance for more, and a lot less.


 


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