Baseball

Dylan Carlson – 2021 Fantasy Baseball and Projections

In my Jo Adell fantasy, I was worried about his strikeouts this year. His strikeouts were a poop emoji giving a speech about how it will never poop itself again knowing that it will never be able to keep that promise. My Dylan Carlson fantasy is not concerned with his less-than-ideal batting average or Ks from last year. Carlson had a 29.4% K% and hit .200 in 110 ABs, but that just doesn’t jive with anything in his minor league numbers. Back up the Hit Tool narrative or gee tee eff oh, you hear me, boy? And ‘boy’ I mean the narrative. Sorry to gender it, but when something’s being dumb, it’s prolly a male, let’s be honest. Unless it’s my wife, then–I kid! Hayzeus Cristo, you trying to get me divorced? What the hell, my dude? You trying to cuck me out of my Cougar?

So, Carlson’s strikeouts last year, just don’t extend any narrative I see from him, and instead feel like this year can be thrown out, and we can go back to his absolutely gorgeous previous year in the minors where he hit 26 homers, stole 20 bags and hit near .300 with a close to 21% strikeout rate, between Double and Triple-A. Also, his walk rate in the minors was solid, and it was not last year. Last year was two months and just needs to be ignored for Carlson. Cards’ season started and stopped more than your ’89 Corolla, then Carlson was sent down to the alternate training site randomly in the middle of the season, when he wasn’t hitting well through a whole 79 plate appearances. Only for him to return, and end the year hitting cleanup in the playoffs. Cards were either without a plan or unable to execute after they kept pulling short straws. If you wanna talk silly sample sizes, Carlson hit .318 with a homer in the final week, and was the Cards’ best hitter by the end of the year. So put that in your dumb narrative and read it to your children! Anyway, what can we expect from Dylan Carlson for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Getting a lot of good vibes from Dylan Carlson, so let’s get the bad vibes out of the way first. Not sure he’s got bigger power than 25 homers or faster speed than 15 steals. 25/15/.280 definitely plays. Everywhere. I’d take that, two shots of Jager and be good for the rest of my life. The problem is those feel like ceilings vs. floors, and he feels like a floor player. He screams to me (in the middle of the night) a guy who is solid if unspectacular. Hits .280 with no problem, but never hits .320. Hits 17-20 homers easily, but never hits 30. Steals 7-12 bags easily, but never steals 20+. Not quite Adam Eaton-type floor, but he’s not eatin’ out with caviar and blinis either. This, of course, could be silly talk since he only just turned 22 years old, and might be a 25/15/.280 for years, which, again, is awesome. And, who knows, power comes later as a hitter picks up the protein shakes and dumbbells. Guess this is a long way of saying Carlson will be a safe, productive rookie in 2021, but a guy like, say, Adell will likely be much worse, but could be much better down the road. Similarly, Carlson could be better than Luis Robert in 2021, due to safety of the tools, but will never match his upside. Unfair to even compare the two. Carlson has a middle infielder’s stats mentality — a 25/12/.280 guy vs. a corner outfielder 35/5/.260, and there’s nothing wrong with that, it’s just different. For 2021, I’ll give Dylan Carlson projections of 69/17/72/.272/8 in 467 ABs with a chance for more.


 


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