This is the third year I’m writing a Casey Mize rookie outlook post. Lowercase yay. Never the hoo:
Waste time with a Mizerpiece
Don’t waste time with a Mizerpiece
You should be rolling with me
You should be rolling with me, ah
You’re a real-life fantasy
You’re a real-life fantasy.
I have designated his stuff Cake by the Ocean. No one comes back from that with realistic expectations. Last person to even come close was a 1988 fantasy outlook post I did for Kevin Blankenship, who Baseball-Almanac ranks in the top 500 still living players who debuted in 1988. A worthy designation! Prior to going forward, let’s go back to what I’ve said previously, “Mize’s final Double-A numbers were 78 2/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.98 FIP. Can’t lie, that injury worries me (he had shoulder inflammation in June of 2019), and I’m afraid of ghosts and that Mize might need some major surgery before resting for 18 months and then returning to being an ace. Specifics on his stuff: double-plus splitter with a plus heater, slider, and control.” And that’s me quoting me! Then the Tigers promoted Casey Mize this year, because they’re wont to promote prospects super fast, which is awesome, and Mize was, well, less than awesome. His stats from this year: 0-3/6.99/1.48/26 in 28 1/3 IP. That gives me a big gulp, and not like the giant drink from 7-11 that you need two hands and both feet to hold. So, what can we expect from Casey Mize for 2021 fantasy baseball?
Hey, whatever happened to Matt Manning? Tarik Skubal? Why are there so many rookie starters? Siri, that’s me asking you. “Sorry, Grey, you didn’t address me first.” That sonavab–So, Casey Mize appears healthy, which great. Also, unlike so many other rookies for redraft, Mize looks locked into the starting rotation to start 2021. That’s also terrific. “Opportunity is all the shots you take,” a famous quote by Wayne Gretzky. Unlike Kevin Blankenship, I don’t think a beating heart is all Mize will have going for him, but his previous year shows the problem with trusting rookie starters. Honestly, if they’re both in the rotation, I kinda like Luis Patino more than Casey Mize. I just need 100 innings of solid throwy-ball, I don’t need a guy that’s gonna be great in two years, which is what Mize could be. When just looking at Mize’s career minor league strikeout rates numbers being under-9, I’m slightly puzzled why we keep getting all crazy for him. The command is spectacular, even if it wasn’t last year. He looks like a 1.50 to 2 BB/9 starter, which makes it hard to imagine things going too sideways. He feels like a guy who will be a much better real world starter than a fantasy one. Like a late-era Zack Greinke. That’s not bad, mind you. I’m not out here saying Mize is gonna be Kevin Blankenship. I’m just…Well, this is gonna be the last time for some time I’m writing a post dedicated to Casey Mize (now watch him throw a no hitter in April). For 2021, I’ll give Casey Mize projections of 7-12/4.37/1.22/124 in 129 IP.