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Loopy on-pace-for stats in 2021 season

The enjoyable of watching baseball this early within the season is that you could persuade your self that the best way everybody’s taking part in now could be the best way they’re going to be taking part in all season. Until you’re the A’s, it is a good factor. It’s extra joyous to think about the new begin to a season isn’t a fluke, however as a substitute, it is a signal that the breakout season you have been ready for is lastly upon us. Six video games in the midst of the season, you don’t even discover. However six video games to start out the season change into our new actuality.

Thus, the giddy ridiculousness of the “On-Tempo-For Recreation.” That’s the sport the place you’re taking an irresponsibly low variety of video games and develop them out by an entire season.

You possibly can have a lot enjoyable with the On-Tempo-For Recreation at this level of the season. Let’s take a look at my favourite such stats to date. Keep in mind: Previous outcomes are usually not predictive of future efficiency, to say the least.

1. Nick Castellanos goes to hit 107 homers (and be concerned in 27 dustups)
Castellanos is tied for the Main League lead with 4 residence runs, all hit in his first six video games. As a result of he nonetheless has his two-game suspension looming over him, he’s on a 160-game tempo right here, thus 107 somewhat than 108. The on-pace quantity for dustups continues to be dead-on, although. It’s really value noting, nevertheless, that due to that suspension, he’ll find yourself in second place within the residence run battle to a teammate who additionally has 4 homers, however no such suspension. Which brings us to:

2. Tyler Naquin will hit 108 residence runs
You would possibly discover this absurd, what with Naquin’s profession excessive of 14 homers heading into this yr (hit approach again in his rookie season of 2016), and that he already has as many homers (4) as he had all of final season. Additionally, uh, he’s clearly meant to be a fourth outfielder/utility kind; he has performed all three outfield positions for the Reds already. However hey: Bringing all that up is making you appear to be a Naquin doubter to me. For those who don’t suppose Naquin, who turns 30 in two weeks and has 35 homers in 1,046 profession plate appearances, goes to hit 108 homers this yr, that’s your downside, not mine.

3. The Reds themselves are breaking data in all places
Keep in mind when the Reds couldn’t hit final yr? Final yr positive appears like a really very long time in the past. The Reds are on tempo to hit 378 residence runs and to attain 1,539 runs. Each of which might destroy the prevailing data of 307 (the 2019 Twins) and 1,067 (the 1931 Yankees).

4. Nate Lowe goes to drive in 378 runs
Look out Hack Wilson: Your RBI mark simply obtained obliterated! Lowe has a jaw-dropping 14 RBIs in simply six Rangers video games, and he’s 5 away from tying his profession excessive of 19 again in 2019 (in 50 video games). The Rays despatched him to the Rangers in December, and right here he’s, only a few months later, altering the best way we take into consideration runs batted in. It has been fairly a wild trip.

5. Ramón Laureano and Garrett Hampson are placing Rickey Henderson on discover
Nobody has come inside 21 steals of Henderson’s single-season document of 130 steals in 35 years. (Nobody has come inside 52 of Henderson’s document since Jose Reyes stole 78 in 2007.) However Laureano and Hampson have 4 of their groups’ first eight video games, placing them on tempo for 81. Laureano’s mark is very spectacular contemplating he has solely performed in 5 of the A’s eight video games. After all, this unsustainability is simply one other instance of Henderson’s brilliance (and the way a lot the sport has modified): Nobody can sustain along with his tempo even for one week.

6. Tyler O’Neill and Miguel Sanó are making a run at Mark Reynolds.
Of all of the single-season data of this period, Mark Reynolds’ 223 strikeouts in 2009 has all the time felt probably the most weak. There are going to be loads of candidates to go him, however the two early rivals are the Cardinals’ O’Neill and the Twins’ Sanó, every of whom has struck out a mean of two occasions per sport, which might put them at 324 for the yr. These two would possibly actually have an opportunity.

7. Rhys Hoskins is setting an all-time doubles document
The all-time document is 67 for Earl Webb again in 1931, however Castellanos made a run at it in 2019 with 58. Hoskins has six in six video games, so he’s going to greater than double the mark. For what it’s value: Hoskins is the kind of hitter, within the kind of ballpark, the place he may make a run at that quantity, no? That, or he’ll hit 45 homers.

8. Shane Bieber is passing Nolan Ryan
Seven pitchers tied for the lead with 34 video games began in 2019, the final full season, which, for the sake of dialogue, we’ll name our ceiling this yr. Bieber has averaged 12 strikeouts in his two begins. If he retains that up, that’s 408 strikeouts on the season, probably the most within the Fashionable Period, passing Ryan’s 383 in 1973. Gerrit Cole is true behind him with 357, for what it’s value.

9. Madison Bumgarner goes to have a really unlucky second act to his profession
Probably the most earned runs given up by a pitcher since 1900? Bobo Newsom, 186 in 1938. Bumgarner has given up 11 in his first two begins. Utilizing that 34 begins determine, he’s going to finish up giving up … 187, edging Newsom by one. It gained’t make anybody overlook his World Collection heroics. But it surely’s not the way you’d wish to see this end up both. For what it’s value, if Bumgarner desires to really feel higher: Max Scherzer is on tempo to surrender 136 homers after permitting 4 in his first begin. (The document is 50 allowed by Bert Blyleven in 1986.)

10. Each workforce in baseball is on tempo to play 162 video games
After final yr, that may simply be probably the most great statistic of all.

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